The Oscars is just around the corner. [(Yes I'm not really gonna introduce myself. I'm intro-phobic (is there such a word?)].
Film buffs around the world are casting their bets on who's going to win. Forget the other major awards, let's focus directly to the major-major one: the Best Picture. As the changes last year, we have 10 films to choose from, you know, to make it more unpredictable (and more stars to hang out during the after-party) To help us predict on who's going to win, I found a secret not-systematically-and-scientifically-proven-formula basing on the last decade. I'm a stat freak, but not freak enough to dig in all the other previous winners.
Here's the formula on how the politics work in the Academy: whoever wins the WRITING and DIRECTING nods, bring home the statue. Well, usually.
Here's the Best Picture winners from the last decade:
2001: Gladiator. Even though Traffic won the writing and directing credits, no one actually watched that movie, right? Remember I said usually on the statement above?
2002: A Beautiful Mind. This was the year when the Lord of the Rings franchise started. But it didn't win both writing and directing awards. Better luck next time on the sequel LOTR fans.
2003: Chicago. The Pianist won the W&D nods but why did Chicago win? Maybe a lively musical is more entertaining than a mere piano. Also LOTR sequel didn't win the best film that year simply because it was not nominated for both writing and directing.
2004: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Finally. Also won W&D.
2005: Million Dollar Baby. It won best in directing, but Clint Eastwood is enough for this film to win.
2006: Crash. This is an upset. Brokeback Mountain won writing (adapted) and directing. Crash also won writing (original) but why did the homos didn't win? I don't know.
2007: The Departed. Also won writing and directing. Easy.
2008: No Country for Old Men. Won writing and directing. I was betting on Juno that year though.
2009: Slumdog Millionaire. Writing and Directing. No sweat.
2010: The Hurt Locker. Also writing and directing. The fan fave Avatar didn't win because, again, it was not nominated for it's screenplay.
For this year, there are only 4 best picture nominees that are also nominated in both writing and directing: True Grit, The Fighter, The Social Network, The King's Speech. But my vibes say it's going to be a photo finish between the Facebook movie and the stuttering king. So whoever gets both the writing and directing statues will get the last award.
But the most of me wants an upset win by Inception. It's nominated for its writing, but not for directing, which is utterly disturbing. Did the Academy think that the best movie of the year directed itself?
I am Andy Calope, and I'm not eurotophobic.